The candidates' itineraries are at the bottom of the page.
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Soooo, anything been happening in politics in the last week? Something? Anything? No?
Actually, now that I think about it, there WAS a bit of whisper about some stuff happening in federal politics. Not especially relevant to the state election, of course, but there might be one or two relevant aspects.
It appears there's a wee bit of leadership tension in the Federal Liberal Party (it's hard to tell, almost impossible to read anything about it anywhere). But it's the political elephant in the room at the moment so let's mention it.
In combination with last week's Queensland election, a couple of fairly recent trends are emerging in Australian politics.
Firstly, as seen in the Queensland election, the number of rusted on supporters that political parties can count on is less... or put another way, more voters are now swinging voters. Some commentators have described it as volatile, and chaotic, but the end result is that politicians and political candidates can take less for granted and safe seats are now less so.
Secondly, the current federal Liberal leadership dramas are evidence of a different type of volatility - one that involves combining the ingredients of social media, mainstream media saturation and momentum.
The Abbott government has experienced negative poll results for a while now and there had been no sense of pressure or talk of changing leaders, but then following the knighting of Prince Phillip, the manner in which Abbott responded to that and then the aftermath of the Queensland election, mainstream media sources started asking the question of whether his position was safe. Social media joined in (or maybe even started the discussion) and like a snowball, picked up size and momentum as it rolled on.
This is a very different situation than the Rudd-Gillard leadership bouts, where there were well-established sides and factions that had been none-too-subtle about which horse they were backing. In the current situation, that pre-existing dissatisfaction wasn't present (or at least wasn't evident).
By and large, Abbotts troups seemed pretty satisfied with their leader and the recent leadership discussions seemed to be a combination of (a) ongoing poll results (b) dissatisfaction with captain's calls designed to circumvent the party's will and a lack of party consultation; and (c) the mob (media, social media) talking the situation up. Add that to opportunism, and voila.
It DOES seem to have come out of the blue, but probably isn't a complete surprise. Group dynamics almost guarantee some members of any large group are likely to be dissatisfied, and even moreso when that group contains more than a few ambitious alpha-types.
That's federal politics, but there are some take away points applicable more broadly.
Firstly, it's too early and too hard to do an accurate autopsy on the Queensland election yet (especially as the result isn't finalised) but it's fair to assume federal issues played a role. What size a role is up for debate, but federal matters typically have SOME impact, so presumably Abbott's leadership and federal Liberal policies influenced SOME people.
Secondly, if the voters are dissatisfied enough, they'll park their vote under a different garage. Some estimates indicate that swinging voters may amount to as many as 40% of the vote so Party's that treat seats as "old reliable" may get a shock. Granted, Campbell Newman and his team were an extreme case so NSW is not a direct analogy nor guaranteed of a change of government, but the rise of the swinging voter is real.
Thirdly, momentum. Just that. Momentum. It's self-perpetuating and one of the most potent forces in modern business, politics and sport. Once something starts gaining momentum, it's very hard to halt. That has long been the case in election campaigns, but the incessant nature of a 24 hour news cycle and saturation social media can increase the pressure brought to bear on a person or a topic (say, a leadership spill) and propel it to unlikely results.
Let's relate those points to the Goulburn electorate.
Goulburn has been a Coalition seat for the last 50 years, but any seat should now consider itself up for grabs lest voters believe they are taken for granted. And, given that momentum can make a huge impact on a campaign, candidates shouldn't waste any time getting out there, being visible, saying things that make sense with, and resonate with the voters and staking their claims.
So let's have a look at what the candidates have been up to or have planned for the week ahead. We asked all candidates to supply us with their weekly itineraries, plus any photos and they wanted to send us.
Both Pru Goward and Ursula Stephens have set off at a cracking rate. They also provided us with campaign photos (see the above photo carousel) and if the other candidates have some they didn't send, send them now and I'll add them in. Their itineraries are reproduced below in the order in which they were received.
Adrian Van Der Byl (Christian Democratic Party)
- Saturday Feb 6: At Yass for a men’s breakfast with the “ Band of Brothers” 66 Lead St, at 8am and after that will be doing the streets of Yass for the day.
- Tuesday Feb 10: 11am - Supporting a rally for “Family Preservation and Restoration,” FACS Goulburn.
Wal Ashton (Outdoor Recreation Party)
- Monday Feb 9: Attend a political meeting in Bungonia
- Saturday Feb 14: Competing in the Barrel Race at the Goulburn Rodeo and speaking with voters.
Pru Goward (Liberal Party)
- Saturday Jan 31: Spent at the Bushranger Hotel meeting Collector locals, and then spent afternoon and Sunday doorknocking Collector and Gunning.
- Tuesday Feb 3: Attended the council meeting for a surprise presentation to Carol James for the local Woman of the Year awards.
- Wednesday Feb 4: Visited the Yass Valley Men’s shed. Enjoyed their culinary skills and got to meet the men involved. Then visited Boorowa Hospital and spent time with Judy McGuiness from Boorowa Hospital Auxiliary before doorknocking Boorowa and Binalong.
- Thursday Feb 5: Spent the morning meeting with community groups and constituents in Goulburn and spent the afternoon talking with Gunning locals.
- Saturday Feb 7 - Sunday Feb 8: Visiting Crookwell, Laggan, Grabben Gullen, Binda and will be attending a function in the area on Saturday night. Next week will be another week of doorknocking, phoning and meetings throughout the electorate.
Ursula Stephens (Labor Party)
- Saturday Feb 7: Goulburn for Blues Festival and Market stall; opening of Merrick Fry exhibition at Art Gallery; Mass in Yass; Yass film night.
- Sunday Feb 8: Goulburn for Blues Festival and market stall.
- Monday Feb 9: Doorknocking in Southern Highlands; Media and meetings in Moss Vales and Robertson
- Tuesday Feb 10: Doorknocking
- Wednesday Feb 11: Doorknocking
- Thursday Feb 12: Business meetings; NDIS information Session Goulburn
- Friday Feb 13: Meetings and doorknocking in Boorowa.
- Saturday Feb 14: Crookwell Show