Ukraine seems like a long way away. It's on the other side of the world, tucked away in that unfortunate borderland between the old Soviet Union and what is now the expanded West.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
But don't be deceived. The mind games and military manoeuvres being played out there will affect Australians.
There are about 100,000 Russian troops poised near the border with Ukraine. If it looks like an invasion force and moves like an invasion force, then that's what it may well be, people from the President of the United States down think.
The federal government in Australia has echoed fears of an "increased risk of armed conflict". On Monday, it advised Australians to leave Ukraine. Embassy families are on the way out.
It's true that the United States and Russia are in direct negotiations, but with no obvious meeting of minds. Russia wants what the US will not give: a guarantee that Ukraine will not join the Western military alliance, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.
In the meantime, the troop build-up continues, including in the US where 8500 military personnel were ordered to "prepare to deploy".
The drums of war beat louder.
And Australia?
There would be an expectation that non-NATO Australia would still stand by its American ally.
"I think Australia has an obligation to support countries which are under attack, being harrassed or having their authority threatened," Dr Matthew Sussex of the ANU's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre says.
"If we say we are upholding international law, and that we are committed to states resolving differences with dialogue instead of sabres, then Australia needs to participate in supporting Ukraine."
Dr Sussex says that support for Ukraine would mean Australian sanctions, but not necessarily "boots on the ground".
But sanctions only come after the undesired act has happened. They would follow Russian aggression.
President Putin may still be thinking hard about pressing the trigger. Since sanctions were imposed after his troops annexed the Crimean peninsula in 2014, the Russian economy has grown by a measly 0.3 per cent a year, when the global average has been more than 2 per cent.
Severe sanctions now - like cutting Russia out of the world's banking system - would be painful (including conceivably for Vladimir Putin himself).
The United States has threatened to halt the opening of a pipeline (Nord Stream 2) that would send Russian gas directly to Western Europe via Germany.
The snag is that Russian retaliation would be painful elsewhere, including in Australia.
Russia supplies one-third of Europe's natural gas. If it retaliated against Western sanctions by turning the gas tap tighter, world energy prices would rise, adding to the inflation already up and running and pushing central banks, including the Reserve Bank of Australia, to raise interest rates.
The small upside in this bleak scenario is that Australia is a large supplier of liquid natural gas, and LNG companies would do a roaring trade - but that might be small consolation if the economy was thrown off course just as the effects of the pandemic wane.
Which way out?
There is a difficulty. President Putin does not seem to have an easy way out which doesn't involve a loss of face.
"Putin has manoeuvered himself into a corner," Professor Sascha-Dominik Bachmann of the University of Canberra says.
During the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, President Kennedy realised he needed to give Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev a ladder to climb down. This he did by (secretly) agreeing to remove American missiles from Turkey if the Russians turned back the ships taking Soviet nuclear-tipped missiles to Cuba. War was averted.
But the device to avoid serious confrontation this time is not obvious.
Putin just can't be seen to back down. The old KGB operative wants to project a "strongman" image, according to Professor Bachmann, not just at home but to the other states bordering the old Soviet Union. Backing down projects a "weak man" image.
"It's really getting very, very dangerous," Professor Bachmann said.
There is a scenario short of outright invasion, and the no-doubt brutal ensuing suppression of Ukraine. Russian troops could invade the east of the country, and continue destabilising the rest with cyber attacks.
"I wouldn't be surprised if Putin does have a go at joining up Crimea and the Donbas," Dr Sussex says.
And China?
There is a theory that Russia and China are allies. If Russian assertiveness in Europe gets results, might a bold China be emboldened still further?
Dr Sussex is not convinced. China is seeking a "soft power" image as a country which respects international law (whatever the evidence to the contrary).
It tells other countries - like Australia - not to interfere in its affairs. Invasive interference in Ukraine's affairs doesn't tally with that narrative.
Maybe.
This is a test
There seems no doubt that Mr Putin wants to divide European allies against themselves, and against the United States. He may have wanted to test Mr Biden as a weak president.
If Biden fails and Putin triumphs, the reverberations will be strong and far-reaching. They will reach Taiwan.
And they will reach Australia, as it looks uneasily towards Beijing.
"If diplomacy fails, the US and its NATO partners will need to do more than rely on cycles of sanctions and dialogue to counter Russia," Dr Sussex said.
"If they really do seek to uphold the principles they espouse, they may find they can speak louder with actions than with words."
Steve Evans
Steve Evans is a reporter on The Canberra Times. He's been a BBC correspondent in New York, London, Berlin and Seoul and the sole reporter/photographer/paper deliverer on The Glen Innes Examiner in country New South Wales. "All the jobs have been fascinating - and so it continues."
Steve Evans is a reporter on The Canberra Times. He's been a BBC correspondent in New York, London, Berlin and Seoul and the sole reporter/photographer/paper deliverer on The Glen Innes Examiner in country New South Wales. "All the jobs have been fascinating - and so it continues."
