Angus Taylor isn't claiming victory in Hume just yet but says the the numbers are "looking good."
That's despite his 13 per cent margin suffering a 5.4pc hit at this stage.
On the national front, Mr Taylor said it was a "tough night" for the coalition, which had lost government after nine years. Prime Minister Scott Morrison conceded defeat just before 11pm.
"We've fragmented our primary vote, as has the Labor Party, not just in Hume but right across Australia," he said.
"We'll obviously be doing some hard thinking as a party about that but in Hume, if the vote comes out the way it appears to be going, it will be a huge privilege to be the member. I'm very excited that could be in the offing for another three years."
Mr Taylor conceded it would be "different" doing this from opposition and pointed to the investments the region had secured from the outgoing government.
In Hume, One Nation candidate Rebecca Thompson has so far secured 5323 votes (7.92pc) and the United Australia Party's Garry Dollin - 3328 votes (4.95pc).
Mr Taylor said these two parties had also taken votes from the coalition and Labor nationally.
"It's clear politics in Australia has been changing and it's more cultural than (previously)," he said.
"It makes it harder for the major parties than in the past so we have to realign."
Mr Taylor said it was disappointing to see good friends and colleagues lose their seat.
The government's loss means he will step down as Industry, Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister. Mr Taylor said he was proud of the "massive reforms' made in the past three years.
"We've shifted Australia and the agenda and that's important," he said.
"If we're to be in opposition, it will be my job to hold the other side to account on the claims they've made."
Angus Taylor has taken a strong lead in the race for Hume, with almost 60 per cent of the primary vote counted.
The sitting Liberal MP had pulled in 28,621 of the 72,481 votes (42.57pc) by 9pm Saturday. The Australian Electoral Commission had counted 55 of 71 booths. Hume has 121,879 registered voters.
Mr Taylor was followed by Labor's Greg Baines on 13, 181 (19.6pc) but independent Penny Ackery was hot on his heels with 10, 425 votes (15.5pc).
Other results were:
On a two-candidate preferred basis, Mr Taylor was leading Mr Baines 55.48pc to 44.42pc
There were 67,237 formal votes cast and 5,244 informals (7.23pc).
Mr Taylor started his day in Goulburn and travelled to the electorate's northern end.
Ms Ackery spent election day away from the booths with a bad cough and cold.
However her campaign workers were on the ground throughout the day.
On Saturday night, campaign manager Matt Murfitt said while Mr Taylor was a favourite to retain to the seat, he was buoyed by early results at some of the booths.
"There are so many rusted on Liberal voters that it's taken a huge effort to convince the general population to consider voting for someone else," he said.
A total $300,000 was spent on Ms Ackery's campaign, $150,000 of which came from the Vote Angus Out group.
Mr Murfitt predicted preferences would play a role, given One Nation was drawing votes in the lectorate and the party had listed Ms Ackery number two on its how to vote card.
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