Last week I had an idea. A great idea, I thought.
The idea was to run a poll to get a snapshot of who people intended to vote for so far.
There are ten Fairfax newspapers across the Hume electorate, and so I thought it would be good to run the poll across all of those sites to get a wider and hopefully more accurate snapshot.
Well the poll has now been completed and the people have spoken. Unfortunately, it seems that some people have spoken many times.
The poll was launched on Friday and by Monday morning, the results resembled previous Hume elections – Libs in front, Labor next (despite no candidate yet), KAP and Ind (JHM) next and then CDP. In other words, no surprises.
I told candidates I felt it was fine to put a link to the poll on their Facebook pages so that Hume voters would know the poll was there and some candidates and several candidates obliged.
Then, after Monday morning, there was a large and consistent surge on Bruce Nicholson’s vote. I made a comment on facebook : “Far be it from me to suggest some people may be mustering their troops to help exaggerate their results”, and Bruce replied to me that he did send out some messages asking people to vote in the poll.
That alone may not have produced this result. Maybe, unbeknownst to Bruce, some KAP supporter(s) set to building up his vote. I want to be clear that I’m not suggesting that anyone has done anything wrong, I’m just saying that the sudden rush of votes on one candidate seemed strange and against the trends that had previously been running.
I don’t know what to make of these results. They seem fairly distorted but time will tell. The poll was never going to be scientific but I naively felt only locals would be interested in joining in as the result doesn’t really count for anything.
In greek theatre, my misjudgement would be called Hamartia. My mistake, lesson learned. For what they’re worth, the results are in the carousel above.
Ironically, THAT POLL, which I’d hoped would be the basis for this week’s diary, has been… just not the way I thought. I still want to have another run at a poll some time… just need to put the thinking cap on.
In the end it was a distraction and has stopped me from talking about some of this week's talking points including the Barton Highway - fortunately we have press releases from Angus and JHM below to inform and entertain you.
So what else has happened this week.
There have been some press releases, some letters to the editor (unpublished so far) and a bunch of campaigning. There have been a few press releases from several candidates but Angus Taylor is still miles ahead in terms transparency - providing info to voters what he has been up to (and will be up to in the following week).
Normally, for no particular reason, I like to take a point off for any photos wearing a hard-hat or kissing a baby (or any reference to how the electorate of Hume is the size of Belgium). Angus wore the campaign's first hard-hat this week in his inspection of the Goulburn Base Hospital extensions, but even with a one point deduction he is still easily the King of the Week for the pace he is setting.
Don't forget to checkout what the candidates (and others) have been saying online at the Hume Chronicles.
If you’re watching the clock, that’s the first full week down, and only 31 to go.
JAMES HARKER MORTLOCK (Independent)
ANGUS TAYLOR (Liberal Party)
ITINERARY (Last week and this week):
ANGUS TAYLOR (Liberal Party)
Sat Feb 2: Doorknocking and phone canvassing, Goulburn; Blazeaid dinner Yass,
Sun Feb 3: Picton Creative Traders Market and doorknocking in North of electorate in evening
Mon Feb 4: LHPA meeting in Yass
Wed Feb 6: Goulburn Hospital visit with NSW Health Minister, Jillian Skinner
Thurs Feb 7: Telephone Canvassing, meetings.
Fri Feb 8: Telephone Canvassing, meetings
Sat Feb 9: Crookwell Show, plus doorknocking in Crookwell.
Tues Feb 12: Deliver paper/speech in Melbourne on the Future of Agriculture
Wed Feb 13: Parliament House, policy work with Senior Shadow Ministers
Thurs Feb 14: High Speed Rail Forum, Goulburn
Fri Feb 15: Interviews in Goulburn Office
Sat Feb 16: Macarthur Cystic Fibrosis Swim-a-thon, Picton.