Paul Stephenson, who ran as an independent for Goulburn in 2007, is not contemplating doing the same again.

The former mayor of Mulwaree Shire and Goulburn Mulwaree (2004-2008) also argues if Labor’s Ursula Stephens decides to run, it will make a very close race.

Mr Stephenson, a local government consultant based on the south coast, makes regular trips back to Goulburn in his role as Veolia Mulwaree Trust director.

Asked whether he felt the Liberals’ hold on Goulburn was at risk, Mr Stephenson said any seat was vulnerable.

“But now I think you’ve got a whole different set of factors, including geography, at play,” he said.

“The Southern Highlands, which is rusted-on Liberal, is now out of the equation (with the redistribution).”

Nationals’ “disaffection” with the decision not to contest Goulburn would also play into an independent’s hands.

Mr Stephenson said while Katrina Hodgkinson had the right to make this call, Nationals’ members, particularly around the Yass area felt disenfranchised.

“A good independent who is well known among rural people would do quite well,” he said.

“If Ursula runs she will get a very high vote and I put that back to the last election when the Labor candidate (Crystal Validakis) didn’t even say boo in the seat but still managed to get 17 per cent of the vote.

“Ursula has held her senate seat for a long time and didn’t do too much wrong, she’s well known, pleasant to everyone and if she runs, I think it will be a very close ball game.”

Mr Stephenson believed people would simply consider who would best represent them.

Ms Goward was in a “difficult” position given her role as Planning Minister and controversy over several large developments in this region.

He did not think Labor was leaving its run too late, six months out from the election, saying people usually made up their mind closer to the election.