A funny thing happened on the way to the NSW Election… the Queensland Election.
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If you haven’t heard, there was a massive swing to Labor in Queensland, the size of which was beyond almost every political analysts predictions, and even the hopes of most Labor voters.
By the end of Saturday night, Labor had secured 43 seats, needing just two more to form outright majority government.
Putting that in context, if you look back to the Liberal National Party win of 2012, the LNP won 78 seats ... the largest majority government in Queensland’s history. Labor had held 51 seats going into that election and was reduced to just seven seats. A landslide.
The size of that shellacking would normally have suggested it would take several terms for Labor to rebuild and be considered a genuine chance to win back government, but Labor bounced back after just one term on the sidelines.
That, of course, is Queensland and not NSW. The Labor Party has a pretty good track record in Queensland and the issues and politicians differ from state to state so it may not be an indicator of what may happen here. But many commentators have concluded that the days of rusted on supporters are numbered and that voters are now ready to move their votes to another party if they’re not happy with the job being done by the mob they voted for last time.
In any event it's got Coaltion followers nervous and ALP followers hopeful ahead of the NSW election.
The NSW election is locked in for March 28… just under two months away. And as with Queensland, the sale of assets and federal issues loom large as potential factors.
For the seat of Goulburn, a bunch of candidates have already announced their intentions and are getting around the electorate, although the Christmas/New Year’s break may have thrown a spanner into their campaign momentum.
Even without the Queensland results, this shapes up as one of the most interesting elections Goulburn’s had for some time.
Let's qualify that. Interesting for some, For some people, ANY election is about as exciting as rearranging your sock draw, so even the MOST exciting one is still 50 shades of beige. But for the politically keen, this election is poised to be exciting because the result isn't a foregone conclusion.
Put another way...It’s on. Like Donkey Kong.
In recent times, the Goulburn district and the Coalition have gone together like rama lama lama ka dinga da dinga dong.
The state campaigns have gone something like this: coalition candidate stands, other candidates run against them (often saying they are a real chance), coalition candidate wins. Repeat.
If you take a “winners are grinners” view of history and look only at the final result and not the margins, Goulburn (which for a brief period was called Southern Highlands) has been ALL Coalition since 1965 when Ron Brewer began his (almost) 20 year reign for the Country/National Party, followed by Robert Webster, John Fahey, Peta Seaton and then Pru Goward .
But that view would overlook a couple of things.
Firstly, it hasn’t always been that way. The Labor Party held sway in the seat of Goulburn for all but three years of the 38 period from 1927-1965 under Jack and Laurie Tully.
And secondly, not all of the elections have been walkovers. In fact, quite the contrary. There’s been a few very close tussles.
- Case in point: when Ron Brewer beat Brian Lulham by 2,047 two party preferred (TPP) votes in 1976.
- Case in point: when Ron Brewer beat Brian Lulham by an even smaller margin (407 TPP votes) in 1978.
- Case in point: when Ron Brewer beat Bob Stephens by 1,073 TPP votes in 1981.
- Case in point: eight years ago when incumbent Pru Goward, then in her first tilt at this electorate, scraped in by 962 votes against Independent candidate, and former local mayor, Paul Stephenson.
Still, the fact remains Goulburn has not had a Labor Party state member for fully 50 years. The majority of Goulburnians have never experienced having an ALP state local member.
For Labor voters, being perennial bridesmaids is probably wearing a bit thin, and the close-but-not-close-enough results on a few occasions do little to soften that record.
To have a chance at Goulburn, Labor needed a title fight... and that's what they've got.
It’s rare that you get two established political heavy weights going toe-to-toe at state level.
Both of the two leading candidates, Pru Goward and Ursula Stephens, come to the campaign with oodles of political experience.
Pru has been a state local member for eight years. Ursula was a senator for 12 years. But both candidates had quite a bit of political experience under their belts before those two roles.
Pru was Executive Director of the Office of the Status of Women in the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet from 1997 to 1999 and then the Sex Discrimination Commissioner from until 2006.
Ursula was Senior Project Officer in NSW Premier's Department from 1997-2001 and had involvement in her husband’s previous tilts at state and federal campaigns.
And even though they find themselves on opposite sides of the political divide, they bear a few similarities. Both, for instance, have a long-standing interest and involvement in human rights, advocacy and social justice.
Of course, Pru and Ursula aren’t the only candidates. To date five candidates have announced for Goulburn. They are Iain Fyfe (Greens), Wal Ashton (Outdoor Recreation Party), Adrian VanDer Byl (Christian Democratic Party), Ursula Stephens (Labor), Pru Goward (Lberal). A sixth candidate, as yet unnamed, is expected to nominate for the Australian Cyclists Party.
While history and evidence from other electorates favours the likelihood of the winner coming from the ALP or the Coalition, ANY candidate can win the election. And if nothing else, the Queensland election reminds us to expect the unexpected.
Each Friday until the election I’ll run a Campaign Diary that will include a summary of either (a) what the candidates have done in the last week (b) what they will be doing and where they will be in the coming week or (c) both.
That summary, however, will only contain the details candidates have provided so it will only be as good as what they send me.
If candidates (and readers) are tweeting and instagramming about the election, it would be handy if they could use the hashtags #goulburnvotes or #goulburn2015 to make it easier to collate and include each week. And if you want to follow the candidates, their social media information is as follows (we’ll update if they add increase their social media presence):
Wal Ashton (Outdoor Recreation Party):
- Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/backwal?fref=nf
- Twitter: https://twitter.com/Vote1Wal
Iain Fyfe (Greens)
Pru Goward (Liberal Party):
Ursula Stephens (ALP):
Adrian Van Der Byl (Christian Democratic Party):